Peak Oil 101

If Peak Oil pundits are right, it spells the end forever of cheap fuel for internal combustion engine cars. Here's the perspective in one simple and quick read.

Q: What’s Peak Oil?

A: Peak Oil is when we reach the maximum rate of oil production and the demand for oil outstrips the capacity to produce it. There will still be oil, but it will be a scarcer, more precious resource.

Q: Has Peak Oil occurred before?

A: On a smaller scale, yes. The U.S. production peak occurred in 1970 and the North Sea peak in 2001, but the production peak we’re talking about is global, not local.

Q: Are we running out of energy?

A: Not exactly. It means we are going to be running short of a very convenient form of energy, one that propels our planes, trains, and automobiles! Up until now, it has been a buyer’s market but after Peak Oil, it will be a seller’s market and prices will rise steeply. The signs of this change may already be apparent in the record oil prices we’ve seen in the last year.

Q: Whose fault is it? Who’s holding out?

A: Nobody, there’s just a limit to how much oil the world can produce every day. We have been finding less oil than we’ve been consuming since the 1980’s and much of the oil we use today comes from fields over 40 years old. We’re spending our inheritance and pretty soon we will have to learn to live within our means.

Q: What will the consequences be?

A: Oil, and everything that depends on oil (which is just about everything) will become much more expensive. This will cause economic turmoil and international tensions as nations compete for dwindling oil reserves.

Q: What does this mean for me?

A: Imagine if the cost of filling your car tripled. You might reconsider buying that 4WD in favour of a smaller car, public transport, or a bicycle, or walking. You might wish you lived closer to work.

Imagine if food shipped from overseas or trucked from interstate became prohibitively expensive. You might start buying more local produce or growing your own.

Imagine if the oil-shock led to a recession. You might lose your job, making it even harder to make ends meet with the new higher prices...

Imagine if Australia became embroiled in an oil war and you had a loved-one in the armed forces...

The consequences of peak oil are potentially very serious and will reach into every area of life. We must take action now. Remember, Noah built the ark before it started raining.

Q: Won’t we just switch to Hydrogen/ethanol/biodiesel?

A: Hydrogen faces huge technical challenges and even if those are overcome it will take decades and trillions of dollars to build a hydrogen economy.

Biodiesel and ethanol will never be available in sufficient quantities to replace oil usage. Australia’s entire wheat crop, converted to ethanol would replace less than 10% of the oil we use.

In short there is no simple substitute for oil that will available in the near future. Dealing with peak oil will not be easy and will involve re-thinking every aspect how we live.

Q: When will we reach Peak Oil?

A: A number of independent scientists believe it will happen before the end of the decade and that it may be here already. Others say we have longer before the peak hits, but can we afford to wait and see?

Q: What can we do?

A: First of all talk about it, talk about it, and talk about it! Talk to your friends and work colleagues. Ask politicians what they are doing to address this issue. You can’t solve a problem until you know you have one.

Another step that can be taken is to asses our own oil vulnerability and look at steps to reduce it. This can be done by individuals, communities, businesses or governments.

The map shows the vulnerability of communities in different parts of Melbourne to high oil prices. Those most at risk are in outer suburbs with poor access to public transport.

Do you live in a vulnerable community? What steps could you or your community take to reduce the impact of high oil prices? As an individual this could mean walking or cycling more, combining car trips or taking the bus. As a community this might include campaigning for improved public transport, or setting up carpooling initiative. We are not helpless and there are many possibilities for making ourselves and our communities more resilient to the coming oil crisis.

Find out more about the problems we face and possible solutions... www.aspo-australia.org.au www.stcwa.org.au www.odac-info.org www.energybulletin.net

Contacts: Elliot Fishman, ASPO Melbourne info@sensibletransport.org.au Bruce Robinson, ASPO Australia bruce.robinson@aspo-australia.org.au This leaflet has been adapted by ASPO Australia from a poster entitled “The Big Rollover”, by Les Magoon of the US Geological Service. See also The Big Rollover, an article we published in 2002.

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